Consumption of dietary saturated fat and cardiovascular disease.

Saturated fat and total cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Results: Data about the relation between saturated fat consumption and total CVD was provided by 7 cohorts, including 5,644 cases.
An increased risk was found in one cohort (McCullough ML; 13), but a significant protective effect was found in another cohort (Yamagishi K; 39). No other associations were found. RR's were available from 6 cohorts. The average RR = 1.00.
Effect modification: No effect modification was found by gender (Leosdottir M [31], Yamagishi K [39]).
Subjects with prevalent disease: One cohort included subjects with type 2 diabetes only (Tanasescu M [13]), and another cohort included subjects with coronary heart disease only (Erkkilä AT [28]). No associations were found.

Conclusion: Few associations were found. No evidence was found for an association between consumption of saturated fat and total cardiovascular disease.

Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and total cardiovascular disease:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR)
45) Houston DK (2010)The Health ABC Study203RiskHR = 1.22 (0.73-2.02; P = 0.44).
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study2,052MortalityHR = 0.82 (0.69-0.97; P = 0.05).
32) Laaksonen DE (2005)The Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study78MortalityNo significant association.
31) Leosdottir M (2007)The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study973 men, and

583 women
RiskMen: HR = 1.05 (0.83-1.34; P = 0.7).

Women: HR = 0.98 (0.71-1.33; P = 0.5).
28) Erkkilä AT (2003)The Finnish cohort of the EUROASPIRE Study44RiskRR = 1.23 (0.89-1.68; P = 0.21).
13) Tanasescu M (2004)The Nurses' Health Study619RiskRR = 1.29 (0.85-1.98; P = 0.16).
13) McCullough ML (2000)The Health Professionals Follow-up Study1,092RiskRR = 0.91 (0.83-1.00) for low vs high consumption.
Total number of cases: 5,644Average RR = 1.00

Saturated fat and coronary heart disease (CHD).

Background: In 2009, Jakobsen et al [48] published a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies relating saturated fat to CHD events and CHD death. because the authors adjusted for all major sources of energy, except carbohydrates, they could diminish the change that the effect from saturated fat consumption was actually caused by a high correlation of saturated fat with other macronutrients. And because adjustments were made for total energy intake and all other macronutrients except carbohydrates, the calculated effect can be seen of a substitution of carbohydrates for saturated fat.
In 2010, Siri-Tarino et al [47] published a meta-analysis relating saturated fat to heart disease and stroke. To obtain missing data from some of the cohorts, the authors from these cohorts were contacted. This way, Siri-Tarino could include additional data in the meta-analysis not provided by the original articles. This additional data (marked with *** in the tables below) was chosen to be included over the original data from the articles.

Results: Some differences were found between results from my systematic review, and the meta-analysis by Siri-Tarino:

  • Several more cohorts will be included in my systematic review (26 for my analysis vs 16 for the analysis by Siri-Tarino). Articles about 3 of these cohorts were published following the literature search of Siri-Tarino (Yamagishi K [39], Jakobsen MU [44]), Corella D [44]). Authors from articles about other cohorts mostly only stated "no significant association was found".
  • Siri-Tarino included 635 cases for the association with total CHD from the cohort by Pietinen et al [19]. However, the original article showed there were 1,399 cases for this association, and 635 cases for the association with CHD mortality. Therefore, data from the original article will be used.
  • Siri-Tarino included 138 cases for the association with total CHD from the cohort by Xu et al [35]. However, the original article showed there were 403 cases for this association, and 138 cases for the association with CHD mortality. Therefore, data from the original article will be used.
  • Siri-Tarino included data from the cohort by Fehily et al [14] for the association with saturated fat. However, the original article included "animal fat" instead of saturated fat. Therefore, this data was included in the analysis of animal fat.

CHD incidence: Data was provided by 26 cohorts, including 14,189 cases. In addition a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies was found which included some cohorts with previously unpublished data, and a total of 5,249 cases (Jakobsen MU [48]).
Significantly increased risks were found in 2 cohorts (Kushi LH [8], Mann JI [21]), and in 3 subcohorts (Knekt P [15], Esrey KL [18], Boniface DR [24]), including 548 cases. One of these cohorts was of small size (Mann JI [21]), and the other 4 were of very small size.
A significant protective effect was found in one cohort of moderate size (Corella D [44]), and among women in another cohort (Soinio M [26]) including 577 cases. RR's were available from 18 cohorts. The average RR = 0.98.
Results from the pooled analysis by Jakobsen et al showed that replacing saturated fat intake with carbohydrate intake significantly increased CHD risk. Stratified analysis showed this association was found among men only (+ 11% risk for a replacement of 5 energy%).

An analysis was made to see if any significant effects on CHD were found at any specific level of consumption of saturated fat. Countries worldwide recommend a saturated fat intake of ≤ 10 energy%. So it would be worthwile to examine to what extend CHD risk would decrease if intake is decreased from > 10 to < 10 energy%. Ten % of energy translates to ≤ 27.8 g saturated fat/day for men and 22.2 g/day for women.
For this analysis, all cohorts were included which provided RR's as stratified data in g/over a given time period, or in energy%, and in ≥ 3 units of consumption. Allowing for five cohorts, and a total of 5,537 cases. The figure below shows RR's in g/day. Data from one cohort of very small size could not be included in this figure (Xu J [35]), RR's from this cohort were presented in energy% for men & women combined. And since the average amount of consumption of energy differs between men and women, no convertion could be made to g/day.

  • A significant protective effect was found among men at 50.3 g/day or 18.11 en% (Pietinen P [19]).
  • A significant protective effect was found among women at 38.9 g/day or 17.5 en% (Leosdottir M [31].
  • No (non)significantly increased risk was found at any level of consumption.



RRs for the association between saturated fat and coronary heart disease among men and women (g/day).:


CHD mortality: Data about mortality as the CHD end point was available from 20 cohorts, including 4,560 deaths. In addition a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies was found which included some cohorts with previously unpublished data, and a total of 2,155 deaths (Jakobsen MU [48]).
Significantly increased risks were found in 6 cohorts, one of which was of moderate size (Ascherio A [13]), and the others were of (very) small size (Kushi LH [8], Knekt P [15], Esrey KL [18], Mann JI [21], Boniface DR [24]). These 6 cohorts included 777 deaths. No significant protective effects were found. RR's were available from 12 cohorts. The average RR = 1.01.
Results from the pooled analysis by Jakobsen et al showed that replacing saturated fat intake with carbohydrate intake had no significant effect on CHD death.
Effect modification:

  • Among men most (Goldbourt U [2], Posner BM [5], Ascherio A [13], Boniface DR [24], Jakobsen MU [29]), but not all (Tucker KL [33]) cohorts showed lower RR's among men aged ≥ 60 years compared to < 60 years. But most cohorts were of (very) small size, and no amounts of cases were defined for the different age groups.
  • Risk tended to differ between men and women in 4 cohorts (Knekt P [15], Boniface DR [24], Soinio M [26], Jakobsen MU [29]), but the directions of the effects differed among the cohorts, and all 4 cohorts were of (very) small size). No effect modification by gender was found in 2 cohorts of moderate size (Leosdottir M [31], Yamagishi K [39]).
  • No effect modification was found by BMI (Oh K [13]).

Subjects with prevalent disease: One cohort included subjects with type 2 diabetes only, and a nonsignificant protective effect was found among women, while no association was found among men (Soinio M [26]). Another cohort included subjects with CHD only, and no association was found (Erkkilä AT [28]).

Conclusion: Some significant associations were found. But these were mostly restricted to (subgroups of) relatively small cohorts. When all cohorts were combined, the average effect size showed no evidence for an association between saturated fat consumption and CHD incidence or CHD mortality (RR = 0.98, and 1.01, respectively). Among men, the possibility of an association among specific age groups is suggested from the limited data.
Relative Risks were not provided by authors of a fair amount of cohorts. However, it is not likely that these missing RR's will change the RR's in any noteworthy direction: Most cohorts were of (very) small size, and included few cases. Also, few authors stated they found a significant association.
In addition, a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies showed that replacing saturated fat intake with carbohydrate intake increased risk of a major coronary event among men. Also, stratified analysis shows no expected benefit whatsoever when consumption of saturated fat is reduced to ≤ 10 energy%.

Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and coronary heart disease incidence & mortality:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR)
44) Corella D (2010)The Spanish part of the EPIC Study534RiskA significant protective effect (P = 0.028).
44) Jakobsen MU (2010)The Danish part of the EPIC Study1,934RiskHR = 1.04 (0.92-1.17) for low vs high consumption.
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study420 IHD,

107 cardiac arrest, and

309 heart failure
MortalityIHD: HR = 0.93 (0.65-1.35; P = 0.86).

Cardiac arrest: HR = 0.50 (0.23-1.10; P = 0.11).

Heart failure: HR = 0.99 (0.64-1.52; P = 0.83).
36) Umesawa M (2008)The JPHC Study322RiskHR = 1.51 (0.98-2.35; P = 0.12).
35) Xu J (2006)The Strong Heart Study403RiskHR = 1.11 (0.82-1.51; P = 0.45).
34) Ness AR (2005)The Boyd Orr Cohort298MortalityRR = 0.70 (0.39-1.26; P = 0.2).
33) Tucker KL (2005)The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging71Mortality***RR = 1.22 (0.31-4.77).
31) Leosdottir M (2007)The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study908Risk***RR = 0.95 (0.74-1.21).
29) Jakobsen MU (2004)4 Danish cohorts326Risk***RR = 1.03 (0.66-1.60).
28) Erkkilä AT (2003)The Finnish cohort of the EUROASPIRE Study34RiskRR = 1.00 (0.68-1.46; P = 0.99).
26) Soinio M (2003)No cohort name defined41 men, and

43 women
Mortality (men), and

Risk (women)
Men: No significant association.

Women: A significant protective effect (P = 0.007).
24) Boniface DR (2002)The Health and Lifestyle Survey155Mortality***RR = 1.37 (1.17-1.65).
21) Mann JI (1997)The Oxford Vegetarian Study45MortalityDRR = 277 (125-613; P = < 0.01).
19) Pietinen P (1997)The ATBC Study1,399RiskRR = 0.87 (0.73-1.03; P = 0.19).
18) Esrey KL (1996)The Lipid Research Clinic Prevalence Follow-up Study52 aged < 60.

40 aged ≥ 60.
MortalityAged < 60: RR = 1.11 (1.04-1.18; P = < 0.01).

Aged ≥ 60: RR = 0.96 (0.88-1.05).
16) Kromhout D (1996)No cohort name defined58MortalityNo significant association.
15) Knekt P (1994)The Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Cohort186 men, and

58 women
MortalityMen: A significantly increased risk (P = 0.01).

Women: No significant association (P = 0.21).
13) Oh K (2005)The Nurses' Health Study1,766RiskRR = 0.97 (0.73-1.27; P = 0.93).
13) Asherio A (1996)The Health Professionals Follow Up Study1,702Risk***RR = 1.11 (0.87-1.42).
8) Kushi LH (1985)The Ireland-Boston Diet-Heart Study110MortalityA significantly increased risk (P = 0.05).
7) Kromhout D (1984)The Zutphen Study30MortalityA nonsignificant protective effect (P = 0.094).
5) Posner BM (1991)The Framingham Study99 aged < 56, and

114 aged ≥ 56
RiskAged < 56: RR = 0.82 (0.64-1.04) for low vs high consumption.

Aged ≥ 56: RR = 1.04 (0.86-1.26) for low vs high consumption.
5) Gordon T (1981)The Puerto Rico Heart Health Program163RiskNo significant association.
3) McGee DL (1984)The Honolulu Heart Program1,177Risk***RR = 0.86 (0.67-1.12)..
2) Goldbourt U (1993)The Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study1,070Mortality***RR = 0.86 (0.56-1.35).
1) Shekelle (1981)The Western Electric Study215MortalityNo significant association (P = 0.14).
Total number of cases: 14,189Average RR = 0.98
*** = Data from Siri-Tarino PW. 2010 [47].


Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and coronary heart disease mortality:
AuthorCohort nameCasesRelative Risk (RR)
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study420 IHD,

107 cardiac arrest, and

309 heart failure
IHD: HR = 0.93 (0.65-1.35; P = 0.86).

Cardiac arrest: HR = 0.50 (0.23-1.10; P = 0.11).

Heart failure: HR = 0.99 (0.64-1.52; P = 0.83).
35) Xu J (2006)The Strong Heart Study46 aged < 60, and

92 aged ≥ 60
Aged < 60: HR = 2.98 (0.66-13.58; P = 0.19).

Aged ≥ 60: HR = 0.80 (0.41-1.54).
34) Ness AR (2005)The Boyd Orr Cohort298RR = 0.70 (0.39-1.26; P = 0.2).
33) Tucker KL (2005)The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging71***RR = 1.22 (0.31-4.77).
28) Erkkilä AT (2003)The Finnish Cohort of The EUROASPIRE Study16RR = 1.01 (0.61-1.69; P = 0.97).
26) Soinio M (2003)No cohort name defined41 men, and

24 women
Men: No significant association.

Women: A nonsignificant protective effect (P = 0.09).
24) Boniface DR (2002)The Health and Lifestyle Survey155***RR = 1.37 (1.17-1.65).
21) Mann JI (1997)The Oxford Vegetarian Study45DRR = 277 (125-613; P = < 0.01).
19) Pietinen P (1997)The ATBC Study635RR = 0.93 (0.60-1.44; P = 0.91).
18) Esrey KL (1996)The Lipid Research Clinic Prevalence Follow-up Study52 aged < 60.

40 aged ≥ 60.
Aged < 60: RR = 1.11 (1.04-1.18; P = < 0.01).

Aged ≥ 60: RR = 0.96 (0.88-1.05).
16) Kromhout D (1996)No cohort name defined58No significant association.
15) Knekt P (1994)The Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Cohort186 men, and

58 women
Men: A significantly increased risk (P = 0.01).

Women: No significant association (P = 0.21).
13) Ascherio A (1996)The Health Professionals Follow Up Study229RR = 1.72 (1.01-2.90; P = 0.09).
8) Kushi LH (1985)The Ireland-Boston Diet-Heart Study110A significantly increased risk (P = 0.05).
7) Kromhout D (1984)The Zutphen Study30A nonsignificant protective effect (P = 0.094).
5) Gillman MW (1997)The Framingham Heart Study83RR = 1.03 (0.97-1.09).
5) Gordon T (1981)The Puerto Rico Heart Healt Program71No significant association.
3) McGee (1985)The Honolulu Heart Program99No significant association.
2) Goldbourt U (1993)The Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease Study1,070***RR = 0.86 (0.56-1.35).
1) Shekelle (1981)The Western Electric Study215***No significant association (P = 0.14).
Total number of cases: 4,560Average RR = 1.01
*** = Data from Siri-Tarino PW. 2010 [47].


Prospective studies of saturated fat and coronary heart disease among men. Stratified by age:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR) among men aged < 60Relative Risk (RR) among men aged ≥ 60
33) Tucker KL (2005)The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of AgingNot defined.Mortality***RR = 0.57 (0.14-2.30).***RR = 2.31 (0.73-7.27).
29) Jakobsen MU (2004)4 Danish cohortsNot defined.Risk***RR = 1.01 (0.48-2.14).***RR = 0.79 (0.48-1.29).
24) Boniface DR (2002)The Health and Lifestyle SurveyNot defined.Mortality***RR = 1.51 (0.69-3.31).***RR = 1.01 (0.57-1.80).
13) Ascherio A (1996)The Health Professionals Follow Up StudyNot defined.Risk***RR = 1.24 (0.87-1.77).***RR = 1.01 (0.73-1.41).
5) Posner BM (1991)The Framingham Study99 < 56, and

114 ≥ 56
Risk*RR = 0.82 (0.64-1.04) for low vs high consumption.*RR = 1.04 (0.86-1.26) for low vs high consumption.
2) Goldbourt U (1993)The Israeli Ischemic Heart Disease StudyNot defined.Mortality***RR = 1.05 (0.87-1.27).***RR = 0.66 (0.44-1.00).
* = cut off point = 56 years.
*** = Data from Siri-Tarino PW. 2010 [47].

Saturated fat and stroke.

Background: In 2010, Siri-Tarino et al [47] published a meta-analysis relating saturated fat to heart disease and stroke. To obtain missing data from some of the cohorts, the authors from these cohorts were contacted. This way, Siri-Tarino could include additional data in the meta-analysis not provided by the original articles. This additional data (marked with *** in the tables below) was chosen to be included over the original data from the articles.

Results: Some differences were found between results from my systematic review, and the meta-analysis by Siri-Tarino:

  • Several more cohorts will be included in my systematic review (17 for my analysis vs 8 for the analysis by Siri-Tarino). Data about one of these was published following the literature search of Siri-Tarino (Yamagishi K [39]).
  • Siri-Tarino grouped all RR's for stroke together, regardless of the type of stroke (total, ischemic, or hemorrhagic). For my analysis, results will be categorized according to stroke type.
  • Siri-Tarino used a HR of 0.58 for the association with ischemic stroke from the cohort by Sauvaget et al [30]. However the original article showed this effect changed after additional adjustment for dietary cholesterol: HR = 1.49. Therefore, the latter HR will be used.

Total stroke: Data was provided by 10 cohorts, including 3,059 cases.
No significant associations were found. RR's were available from 7 cohorts. The average RR = 0.88.
Ischemic stroke: Data was provided by 7 cohorts, including 1,853 cases.
A significant protective effect was found in one cohort (Yamagishi K [39]). No other associations were found. RR's were available from 6 cohorts. The average RR = 1.13.
Hemorrhagic stroke: Data was provided by 5 cohorts, including 742 cases.
Significant protective effects against intraparenchymal hemorrhage were found in 2 Japanese cohorts (Iso H [25], Yamagishi K [39]). Though no association with this type of hemorrhage was found in the Western cohort, categorization according to more extreme levels of consumption showed an significantly increased risk at the lowest 2 deciles of consumption (Iso H [13]). The highest levels of consumption of saturated fat in the Japanese cohorts (> 17 g/day) were equal to the lowest levels of consumption in the Western cohort.
No associations were found with subarachnoid hemorrhages.
Effect modification: No consistent effect modification was found by age (He K [13], Siri-Tarino PW [47]), gender (Khaw KT [10], Iso H [25], Leosdottir M [31]), Yamagishi K [39]), BMI, or serum glucose (Iso H [25]).
Subjects with prevalent disease: Data about subjects with hypertension was provided by 2 cohorts. Nonsignificant protective effects against intraparenchymal hemorrhage were found in both cohorts (Iso H [13], Iso H [25]).

Conclusion: Very low consumption of saturated fat (≤ 17-20 g/day) significantly increased risk of intraparenchymal hemorrage in 3 cohorts, 2 of which were of moderate-large size. Very low consumption of saturated fat possibly increases risk of intraparenchymal hemorrage. Few other associations were found, and no evidence was found for an association with ischemic stroke, or subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and total stroke:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR)
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study976MortalityHR = 0.75 (0.53-1.05; P = 0.10).
34) Ness AR (2005)The Boyd Orr Cohort83MortalityRR = 1.31 (0.49-3.47; P = 0.9).
20) Ross RK (1997)No cohort name defined245MortalityRR = 1.2 (0.9-1.8).
13) He K (2003)The Health Professionals Follow Up Study598Risk***RR = 0.79 (0.52-1.19).
12) Simon JA (1995)The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial96RiskNo significant association.
10) Khaw KT (1987)The Rancho Bernardo Cohort24MortalityNo significant association.
9) Seino F (1997)The Shibata Study141RiskRR = 0.68 (0.21-2.26; P = 0.56).
7) Keli SO (1994)The Zutphen Study42RiskNo significant association.
47) Siri-Tarino PW (2010)The Honolulu Heart Program492RiskRR = 1.04 (0.72-1.50).
47) Siri-Tarino PW (2010)The Isreali Ischemic Heart Disease Study362MortalityRR = 0.92 (0.56-1.51).
Total number of cases: 3,059Average RR = 0.88
*** = Data from Siri-Tarino PW. 2010 [47].


Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and ischemic stroke:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR)
41) Boden-Albala B (2009)The Northern Manhattan Study142RiskHR = 1.7 (0.8-2.3).
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study321RiskHR = 0.56 (0.32-0.97; P = 0.046).
31) Leosdottir M (2007)The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study648Risk***RR = 1.22 (0.91-1.64).
30) Sauvaget C (2004)The Adult Health Study60MortalityRH = 1.49 (0.70-3.17; P = 0.27).
25) Iso H (2003)No cohort name defined166RiskNo significant association.
13) He K (2003)The Health Professionals Follow Up Study455RiskRR = 1.21 (0.75-1.97; P = 0.63).
5) Gillman MW (1997)The Framingham Study61RiskRR = 0.90 (0.83-0.96).
Total number of cases: 1,853Average RR = 1.13
*** = Data from Siri-Tarino PW. 2010 [47].


Prospective studies of dietary saturated fat and hemorrhagic stroke:
AuthorCohort nameCasesEnd pointRelative Risk (RR)
39) Yamagishi K (2010)The JACC Study224 intraparenchymal hemorrhage, and

153 subarachnoid hemorrhage
MortalityIntraparenchymal hemorrhage: HR = 0.45 (0.22-0.89; P = 0.048).

Subarachnoid hemorrhage: HR = 0.91 (0.46-1.80; P = 0.47).
25) Iso H (2003)No cohort name defined67 intraparenchymal hemmorhage, and

41 subarachnoid hemorrhage
RiskIntraparenchymal hemorrhage: RR = 0.30 (0.12-0.71; P = 0.005).

Subarachnoid hemorrhage: No significant association.
13) He K (2003)The Health Professionals Follow Up Study125Haemorrhagic stroke incidenceRR = 1.17 (0.45-3.07; P = 0.83).
13) Iso H (2001)The Nurses' Health Study74Intraparenchymal hemorrhage riskRR = 1.05 (0.32-3.39; P = 0.83).
3) Kagan A (1985)The Honolulu Heart Program58Intracranial hemorrhage riskNo significant association.
Total number of cases: 742Average RR = 0.75